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Laypeople Can Predict Which Social-Science Studies Will Be Replicated Successfully
Suzanne Hoogeveen, Alexandra Sarafoglou, Eric-Jan Wagenmakers · 2020
233 laypeople (no Ph.D. in psychology) judged, for each of 27 high-profile social-science findings, whether it would replicate successfully and how confident they were. Half saw only a plain-language description; half also saw the original study's Bayes factor. Accuracy was 59% (description only) and 67% (description plus evidence).
The recommended Human Program is available in the desktop research library.
What you can do with it
- Read and search the study
- Yes
- Run AI participants
- Yes
- Original human data
- Yes
- source pinned in package/hoogeveen2020/human/key.json (4 of 4 data files downloadable from it)
- Paper's results recovered from the human data
- Yes
- 4 of 4 reported results recovered by the package analysis from the connected human data
- Authors' analysis code
- No
- no author-code key recorded